Winning Bizness Desk

Mumbai. China’s trade surplus in 2025 has crossed a historic level of 1.19 trillion dollars, making it the largest ever recorded by any country in real terms. The figure is about 20 percent higher than in 2024 and comes even after adjusting for inflation. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs shows that Chinese goods flooded global markets, helping the world’s second largest economy post an unmatched export-import gap.

In December alone, China recorded a trade surplus of 114.14 billion dollars, making it the third strongest month in the country’s history. Trade surplus refers to the difference between what a country earns by selling goods abroad and what it spends on imports. The latest numbers underline how deeply Chinese manufacturing has spread across global supply chains.

Chinese goods reach US through third countries

When US President Donald Trump imposed a 30 percent tariff on Chinese products, direct trade between China and the United States slowed. However, Chinese companies found a way around the restrictions. Instead of shipping goods straight to the US, factories in China routed their products through Southeast Asia and other regions before they reached American markets. This kept Chinese exports flowing despite the tariffs.

The strategy allowed exporters to avoid higher duties while still tapping into the huge US consumer market. As a result, Trump’s tariff push failed to significantly reduce China’s overall export earnings.

China cuts imports to boost self reliance

China has been steadily reducing its dependence on foreign goods. The government has been pushing a self reliance policy aimed at strengthening domestic production. The five year economic plan announced in October, which runs up to 2030, puts strong focus on building local industries.

China has not faced a trade deficit since 1993. Imports of foreign products have been falling as local companies are encouraged to replace them. This has helped widen the trade surplus further.

Weak currency and low domestic demand push exports

China’s currency, the Renminbi, has weakened sharply. This has made Chinese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, while imported products have become costly for Chinese consumers. At the same time, a major slowdown in the real estate sector has reduced household savings.

People are buying fewer foreign goods such as cars and cosmetics. With domestic demand weak, factories are exporting more of what they produce.

This shift has led to

• Higher exports
• Lower imports
• A widening surplus

IMF warns China cannot rely only on exports

Last month in Beijing, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that China is now too big to grow only through exports. She said the country should strengthen its currency and increase domestic consumption. Without these changes, she warned, global trade tensions could rise.

Trade surplus means a country earns more from exports than it spends on imports. China’s 1.19 trillion dollar surplus means it earned around 100 lakh crore rupees more than it spent on foreign goods.

For comparison

• Japan’s 1993 surplus was 214 billion dollars in today’s terms
• Germany’s 2017 record was 364 billion dollars

China is now three to five times ahead of both, showing how dominant its export engine has become.