Winning Bizness Desk
Mumbai.Deloitte Projects India’s Economy to Grow at 6.5-to-6.8 pc in FY 27
Deloitte India in its report has said that it expects the country’s GDP to expand at between 6.5-to-6.8 per cent this fiscal (FY 27).
Driven by festival sales, improvements in the geo-political sphere and monetary easing, growth is expected to strengthen in the second-half of the year, it said.
In its latest edition of the Economic Outlook report, Deloitte said that India had entered this year (2026) on a strong footing but geo-political developments adversely affected the global environment.
The US-Israel-Iran war which has enveloped almost the entire Middle-East has radically changed the global environment as crude oil prices surged, shipping routes got disturbed and commodity prices witnessed volatility.
Additionally, investor sentiment also weakened as a consequence of the geo-political uncertainty.
Here, an important point to note is that this resulted in a bigger trade deficit combined with a sharp depreciation of the country’s currency—the Rupee—against the US Dollar in very quick time.
Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had last month lowered the country’s GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal to 6.6 per cent from its earlier estimated 6.9 per cent.
What requires highlighting here is that the country’s GDP expanded by a very creditable 7.7 per cent in the last financial year (FY 26).
Deloitte India’s economist Rumki Majumdar said that the global environment had now become increasingly uncertain.
“While recent geo-political developments and the RBI’s policy measures may help cushion some of these risks, weather-related uncertainties, particularly the impact of El Nino on agriculture output and food prices, remain an important downside risk,” Majumdar said.
Despite near-term headwinds, Deloitte remains optimistic about India’s medium-term growth prospects. According to the report, one of the main reasons for this is the country’s accelerated pursuit of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with large and strategically important markets.
The report pointed out that inflation remained one of the big risks to growth outlook as higher prices of crude oil, fertilisers, essential minerals and edible oils, combined with a weaker Rupee were gradually feeding into domestic prices.
India’s Inflation Rises to 4.38 pc, Rate Hikes a Possibility
For the first time in 17-months, India’s retail inflation has breached the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s target, making interest rate hikes by the country’s central bank a strong possibility going forward.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed northward to 4.38 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) in June.
Geo-political developments, primarily the war in the Middle-East has rapidly pushed up crude oil prices which, in turn, is feeding into inflation in the country. Apart from the US-Israel-Iran war which has adversely hit supply routes, the delay in the arrival of rains is another factor that is also adding to worries.
However, a point to note here is that in recent days, there has been reasonable rainfall and the worries on this count have reduced to some extent.
Following fuel price hikes, transport inflation climbed up to 4.31 per cent last month, which is quicker than the 1.75 per cent increase in May.
Crude oil prices which had slid from their peak levels during the war have once again climbed up following the re-start of clashes between Iran and the United States in the last few days.
Food inflation increased to 5.32 per cent last month from the 4.78 per cent of the previous month of May following the late arrival of monsoon.
India’s agriculture sector is heavily monsoon-dependent and, therefore, if rains fail, then it will adversely hit not only crop production leading to food shortages and price rise, but also affect rural incomes.
Direct Tax Collections Expand 16 pc to Rs 6.51-lakh-cr
Net direct tax collections climbed healthily by 16.40 per cent to breach the Rs 6.50-lakh-crore mark till July 13 of the current financial year (FY 27).
It stood at Rs 6.51-lakh-crore as at that date with growth largely propelled by a higher corporate tax mop-up.
Net corporate tax collection increased 22 per cent to Rs 2.40-lakh-crore while the mop-up from individual taxes moved northward by about 12 per cent to over Rs 3.84-lakh-crore till July 13 of this year.
The Securities Transaction Tax (STT) also grew by a robust 48 per cent to Rs 26,429-crore.
On a gross basis, direct tax collections increased 16.11 per cent to over Rs 7.73-lakh-crore.
This includes the corporate tax collection of over Rs 3.35-lakh-crore and NCT of about Rs 4.12-lakh-crore.
The government has budgeted to collect Rs 26.97-lakh-crore from direct taxes in the current fiscal, a 15 per cent increase over the Rs 23.40-lakh-crore collected last fiscal (FY 26).
One notable feature here is the stronger growth clocked in corporate tax collections relative to personal Income Tax collections and healthy advance tax payments by corporates.
While the direct tax mobilisation is on a firm footing, importantly, there is also continued improvement in compliance and formalisation.
India’s Real Estate Equity Inflows Hit Record USD 8.5-bn in H1 2026: CBRE
The country’s real estate sector attracted a healthy USD 8.5-billion in equity capital during the first-half of this year. A CBRE report said that this is a 32 per cent Year-on-Year northward movement from the USD 6.4-billion registered in the corresponding period of the last year.
The report said that the inflows were the highest half-yearly investments recorded by the sector and that this was propelled by sustained investments in land and development sites as well as built-up office assets.
During Q2 2026, equity capital inflows stood at USD 3.4-billion, remaining broadly unchanged from the year-ago period.
Investment in land and development sites, along with built-up office assets, accounted for nearly 94 per cent of the total equity inflows during the quarter.
Chairman and CEO, India, South-East Asia, Middle-East and Africa of CBRE, Mr Anshuman Magazine, said that the scenario reflected the resilience and depth of the country’s real estate capital markets.
The report further noted that domestic investors contributed about 92 per cent of the total investment inflows during Q2, while global investors accounted for the remaining share.
The southern city of Bangalore, the Delhi-NCR region and Mumbai accounted for around 60 per cent of the total investment inflows in the quarter.
CBRE said that it expects investment activity in real estate to remain strong through the rest of this year, on the back of steady capital deployment in both income-generating assets and new project development.
India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Reach USD 675-bn
India’s foreign exchange reserves climbed USD 964-million to USD 675.15-billion during the week ended July 10, the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.
For the reporting week, the Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs)—the largest component of the reserves—increased by USD 930-million to USD 546.508-billion, RBI data showed.
Earlier, the Reserve Bank had said that India’s foreign exchange reserves had jumped USD 7.26-billion to USD 674.193-billion during the week ended July 3.
In the same week, the central bank’s data showed that FCAs had increased USD 4.51-billion to USD 545.578-billion.
Expressed in dollar terms, FCAs include the impact of appreciation or depreciation of non-US currencies such as the Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen held in the reserves.
Gold reserves moved northward by USD 24-million. The value of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) rose by USD 3-million to USD 18.626-billion.
India’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also increased by USD 7-million to USD 4.793-billion during the reporting week, according to the Reserve Bank.
