Winning Bizness Desk

Mumbai. Food prices across the world have climbed to their highest level in three years, with the United Nations warning that the crisis may deepen further in the coming months. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), linked to the UN, said its global food commodity price index rose 1.6% in April. The index is now 2.5% higher than last year. Experts say the continuing US-Iran war has badly affected global supply chains, especially fuel and fertiliser movement, pushing farming costs sharply higher. The UN has cautioned that consumers worldwide are likely to face another round of food inflation soon.

Hormuz blockade deepens global supply worries

The Iran conflict has now stretched beyond 10 weeks, and the closure of the Hormuz shipping route has become a major concern for global markets. The route is considered one of the world’s busiest energy corridors and is crucial for transporting diesel, fertilisers and other agricultural supplies.

The disruption has triggered problems across farming economies because:

• Fuel needed for transportation and irrigation has become costlier
• Fertiliser supplies have slowed down sharply
• Farming input costs are rising across many countries
• Food production may become more expensive in coming seasons

Economists believe the pressure created by the blocked route will continue to impact both farmers and consumers through 2026.

Vegetable oil and meat prices surge sharply

According to the FAO report, vegetable oil prices recorded the steepest jump. Rising crude oil prices have increased demand for bio-fuels, which in turn pushed vegetable oil prices up by 5.9% compared to March. This is the highest level seen since July 2022.

Meat prices also climbed by 1.2%, touching an all-time record high globally. Grain prices rose 0.8% as concerns over future supply continued to grow.

Key commodities seeing strong inflation include:

• Edible oils
• Wheat and grains
• Meat products
• Tomatoes and vegetables
• Daily kitchen essentials

Market experts say the impact has not fully reached retail consumers yet because many companies are still selling older stock purchased at cheaper rates.

Companies relying on old stock for relief

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said the agri-food industry is currently surviving because businesses are depending on old inventories. He warned that once higher energy and raw material costs start reflecting in company accounts, consumers will face a stronger inflation shock.

He said the situation could become dangerous if the geopolitical tensions continue for more than 90 days. According to him, the risk of a global food crisis may rise sharply by late 2026 and continue into 2027.

The economist also pointed out that rising transport and storage costs are quietly building pressure inside the global food system.

Falling wheat sowing raises fresh concerns

Apart from war-related disruptions, poor weather conditions and lower wheat sowing forecasts for 2026 are also pushing grain prices upward. Rising fertiliser costs are forcing many farmers to consider crops that require less chemical use.

Agriculture experts believe this shift may reduce overall grain output in several regions. If production falls while demand remains strong, food prices could rise even faster.

Experts further warn:

• Weather risks remain high in major farming nations
• Farmers are cutting fertiliser use to save costs
• Lower sowing may affect future wheat supply
• Retail food inflation could worsen gradually

Many analysts now believe global food inflation has entered a long-term pressure cycle rather than a short temporary phase.

India also witnessing sharp rise in essentials

Inflationary pressure is now visible in India as well. According to Bank of Baroda’s Essential Commodity Index, the country’s inflation index increased 1.1% annually and 0.3% monthly in April. This marked the fastest monthly rise since August 2025.

Out of 20 essential household items tracked by the bank, prices of 16 items increased during the month. Edible oil, tomatoes and other daily-use products witnessed price rises of up to 36%, pushing India’s retail inflation close to 4% in April.

Economists say inflation risks remain high because prices continued rising in May too. If the global supply crisis deepens further, Indian households may soon feel stronger pressure on monthly food budgets.