Winning Bizness Desk

Mumbai. The ongoing Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a looming jet fuel crisis across Europe and parts of Asia, raising fears of widespread flight disruptions and rising travel costs. According to the International Energy Agency, Europe currently has barely six weeks of jet fuel reserves left. If supply chains are not restored quickly, the peak summer travel season could see large-scale flight cancellations and a sharp spike in airfares.

Global energy crisis worsens amid conflict

IEA Director Fatih Birol has warned that the global economy is heading towards one of the most severe energy crises in recent history. European nations, which usually maintain several months of jet fuel reserves, are witnessing a rapid depletion due to disrupted supply lines. The situation is being closely monitored as fuel availability drops faster than anticipated.

Fuel reserves fall below critical threshold levels

The IEA report highlights that several European countries now have less than 20 days of jet fuel stock remaining. Industry benchmarks suggest that once reserves fall below 23 days, airports begin experiencing physical shortages. This could force airlines to cancel flights on a massive scale, especially during high-demand travel periods.

Key developments at a glance

• Europe left with around six weeks of jet fuel supply
• Some countries already below 20 days of reserves
• Critical threshold of 23 days may trigger shortages
• Summer travel season likely to be worst affected

Hormuz route closure blocks vital oil supply

Europe imports nearly 20 to 25 percent of its jet fuel requirements, with about 40 percent of that supply routed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, no fuel shipments have passed through this critical corridor, according to Argus Media. Globally, between 10 to 15 million barrels of oil supply per day have been disrupted due to the blockade.

Airlines face rising costs and shrinking margins

Fuel accounts for nearly 30 percent of an airline’s total operating cost, as per the International Air Transport Association. Since the conflict began, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, severely impacting airline profitability. Carriers are now passing on the burden to passengers through fare hikes and increased ancillary charges.

Airlines respond with cuts and surcharges

Major global airlines have already begun taking corrective measures to cope with the crisis. These include route cancellations, fleet restructuring, and higher passenger charges.

• KLM plans to cancel 160 flights next month citing unviable routes
• Lufthansa is shutting down its CityLine unit early and retiring 27 older aircraft
• EasyJet expects losses of around 560 million pounds in early 2026
• Cathay Pacific raises fuel surcharge by up to 34 percent
• Air India adds fees of up to 280 dollars on select routes

US support rises but gap remains significant

Experts point out that Asia-Pacific countries are the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, followed by Europe. The United States, being a major oil producer, is relatively insulated from the crisis. To support Europe, the US has increased its fuel supply sixfold in April to about 150,000 barrels per day, but this remains insufficient to offset the overall shortfall.

What it means for air travellers globally

Passengers are likely to face multiple disruptions beyond higher ticket prices. Airlines may alter routes to conserve fuel, resulting in longer travel times. Flight options could reduce significantly, and last-minute schedule changes may become frequent. During the peak summer season, finding affordable tickets is expected to become nearly impossible.

Key impact on passengers

• Higher ticket prices and added surcharges
• ewer flight options on major routes
• Longer travel durations due to rerouting
• Frequent last-minute schedule changes

Why the Hormuz route is strategically critical

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, is one of the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoints. A significant portion of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait passes through this narrow maritime corridor. Its closure has far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and aviation fuel supply chains.