Winning Bizness Desk
Mumbai.RBI Ups GDP Growth Forecast for FY 27 to Above 7 pc
The country’s apex bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has upped its real GDP growth forecast projection for this fiscal (FY 27) to above 7 per cent at 7.1 per cent from 6.7 per cent, an increase of 0.4 per cent. This is alongside the higher growth estimates for both the second-quarter (Q2) and third-quarter (Q3) as well.
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also increased the repo rate by 0.25 per cent or 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 per cent and changed its policy stance from neutral to calibrated tightening.
The RBI’s Governor Mr Sanjay Malhotra said that the inflation outlook was less benign than last year and the MPC considered the recalibration of policy rate necessary.
The Reserve Bank has projected core inflation at 4.4 per cent for FY 27 and Consumer Price Index (CPI) at averaging 5.8 per cent over the remaining three-quarters of the financial year.
With respect to economic growth for the second-quarter (Q2 FY 27), the RBI has upped it to 7.2 per cent from 6.4 per cent and for the third-quarter (Q3 FY 27) to 6.9 per cent from 6.5 per cent. It retained the Q4 FY 27 growth projection at 6.8 per cent.
For Q1 of the next fiscal (FY 28), the RBI has lowered its growth estimate to 7.1 per cent from 7.3 per cent.
Mr Malhotra said that the domestic economic momentum was broad-based and the Monetary Policy Committee expected the economy to be resilient.
Private consumption drove growth in Q1, the Governor said, adding that consumption remained broadly resilient with continued support from discretionary spending.
High-frequency indicators showed economic activity holding its momentum in Q2 (July-to-September quarter), although there was some moderation compared with Q1, Mr Malhotra said.
Despite cost pressures, manufacturing activity was holding up, he pointed out. The re-escalation of the West Asia war had soured global economic sentiment, he said, while lingering trade uncertainty was keeping the global sentiment nervous.
According to the RBI Governor, rate cuts were off the table in the near-term.
India Nod for Nepal’s 98 MW Power Exports
India has renewed export approvals for four Nepali hydropower projects just as the Himalayan country enters the period for monsoon electricity generation.
The approvals cover the 38.8 MW Upper Chameliya, 24.25 MW Seti River, 10.7 MW Upper Tadi Khola and 24.25 MW Upper Dordi A projects.
The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) said that India had informed it last week that the approvals have been given.
Here, it must be noted that the nod for the Upper Chameliya had expired in June of this year while those for two others—the Seti River and Upper Tadi Khola had expired on July 31.
The approval for the Upper Dordi A had expired in August.
The delays had raised concerns that Nepal could lose part of its peak monsoon export window.
What is important to note here is that hydropower generation increases steeply during the rainy season as river flows increase—this allows the mountain country to sell surplus electricity after catering to domestic demand.
The renewals for Nepal’s export have come after India extended Nepal’s permission to import up to 654 MW of electricity through the 400 KV Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur and 132 KV Tanakpur-Mahendranagar transmission lines through January.
Nepal exports surplus power to India and Bangladesh during the monsoon but imports electricity from India during the dry winter months.
Indian Eco Can Double to USD 8-trn Over Next Decade: KKR
The country’s economy can double to more than USD 8-trillion over the next decade as structural reforms, infrastructure investment and formalisation continue to elevate India’s growth potential, the well-known global investment firm KKR said.
The country has already surpassed the USD 4-trillion mark and remains on track to double again over the next ten-years, KKR said in its Thoughts from the Road—Europe and Asia Report for October 2026.
“India remains one of the clearest examples of how patient, structural reform can pay off over a decade rather than a quarter,” the report stated.
KKR further said that reforms since 2014, including those of Goods and Services Tax (GST), Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, labour market formalisation, digitalisation and sustained infrastructure spending have “quietly reset the country’s growth ceiling’’.
It sees these measures supporting a durable 10-11 per cent nominal GDP growth path, with further gains possible even from reforms that have already been implemented.
According to the global investment firm, the country’s growth story was far from mature with significant economic benefits from earlier reforms yet to fully fructify.
“We do not see this as a story that has run its course,” the report said, adding that “there is still meaningful upside to be unlocked from reforms already on the books, not just from new ones yet to come.”
Consumption and increasing incomes remain among KKR’s strongest structural investment themes in India, although elevated crude oil prices could temporarily slow the consumer story.
However, the Indian government’s policy has helped prevent the full impact of higher energy prices from flowing into household budgets, limiting the impact on discretionary consumption compared with previous oil shocks, KKR’s report stated.
Services exports are emerging as another major pillar of growth and Global Capability Centres (GCCs) are increasingly taking over from traditional IT services as an important growth engine.
KKR pointed out that services already accounted for more than half of the contribution to India’s real GDP growth.
India’s September Auto Retail Sales at Record 25.37-lakh Units
The country’s automobile industry registered its best-ever month in September of this year (last month) as domestic sales climbed up robustly a 31.82 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) to a record 25,36,920 units, data from the
Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said.
The healthy northward movement in retail sales was propelled by both the festive demand as well as a low base.
An important point that needs to be highlighted here is that the industry additionally clocked its best-ever September across five of the six vehicle categories.
The first-half of this fiscal (H1 FY 27) also witnessed record retail sales of 1,55,319 units, up 20.77 per cent on a YoY basis.
FADA, however, adopted a cautionary tone: the organisation highlighted the fact that the high annual growth should be viewed with caution as the September 2025 (last year) sales were affected by purchase deferments ahead of the implementation of GST 2.0.
When compared to the sales figures of August 2026, the retail growth stood at only 4.69 per cent.
In September, two-wheelers were the highest selling segment with their retail sales climbing northward 33.08 per cent YoY to 17,90,188 units with the second spot claimed by Passenger Vehicles (PVs) which followed with sales of 4,27,213 units, up 32.10 per cent.
Commercial vehicles’ sales also expanded healthily at 37.62 per cent to 1,03,557 units, crossing the one-lakh mark for the first time in September.
Three-wheeler sales increased 22.25 per cent to 1,32,570 units while tractor sales moved northward 13.75 per cent to 76,906 units.
Wheeled construction equipment also registered their highest growth among segments with their sales zooming 38 per cent to 6,486 units.
FADA President Mr Sai Giridhar said that September of this year “was the best-ever September for Indian auto retail.” The FADA official, however, cautioned that the 31.82 per cent YoY growth was the most base-distorted reading of the year.
Alternative fuel vehicles accounted for 41 per cent of passenger vehicle retail sales in September, nearly matching petrol vehicles at 41.27 per cent.
Electric vehicles’ penetration in the PV segment also climbed up to 8.45 per cent.
An important point that requires highlighting here is that across all vehicle categories, EV retail sales reached an all-time monthly high of about 3.34-lakh units. This took the overall EV penetration to around 13 per cent, FADA said.
On future prospects, the automobile industry body said that demand deferred during Pitru Paksha was expected to convert into deliveries during the two big festivals of Navaratri and Dussehra.
A vast majority of dealers expect sales to climb in the October-December period. Describing the near-term outlook as cautiously optimistic, FADA pointed to festive demand conversion, affordability and inventory levels as key factors to keep an eye on.
